Using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for extreme precipitation forecasting in an Andean region with complex topography (2017)

Title

Using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for extreme precipitation forecasting in an Andean region with complex topography (2017)

Publication Type

Journal Article

Year of Publication

2017

Authors

G. Yáñez Morroni; J. Gironás; M. Caneo; R. Delgado

Journal Title

European Water

Keywords

flash flood, numerical weather predictors, WRF, extreme rainfall events, Andean mountain

Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is broadly used for weather prediction and research due to its good performance, but atmospheric conditions simulation over complex topography is not always optimal.

Consequently, WRF has an ineffectiveness resolving Chilean mountainous terrain and foothills, precisely the site where some of the main cities are located and the most extreme rainfall events take place. This work uses a mixed physic scheme to enhance initial forecasts made by Chilean Weather Agency (DMC): testing it over vertical levels, PBL (planet boundary layer), microphysics and lead time in the computational simulations. Even when the steep topography difficult the storm peak amount, and to a lesser degree, the exact storm beginning prediction, WRF do predict properly the N-hours with the biggest amount of rainfall (5 hours corresponding to Quebrada de Ramón’s time of concentration) and the temperatures during the event. Finally, a Lin et al. or WSM 6-class microphysics was chosen as the best in this event, but further testing in more storms in this region is required.

DOI

 http://ewra.net/ew/pdf/EW_2017_59_12.pdf

Corresponding Author

G. Yáñez Morroni, gjyanez@uc.cl

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