Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing

Título
Benchmarking the Covid-19 pandemic across countries and states in the USA under heterogeneous testing
Autor (es)Kenzo Asahi, Eduardo A. Undurraga & Rodrigo Wagner
Línea (s)Acceso y movilidad
Año de publicación2021
RevistaScientific Reports
Palabras claves
Diagnosis, Diseases, Health policy, Infectious diseases, Preventive medicine, Public health, Viral infection
Resumen

Scientists and policymakers need to compare the incidence of Covid-19 across territories or periods with various levels of testing. Benchmarking based on the increase in total cases or case fatality rates is one way of comparing the evolution of the pandemic across countries or territories and could inform policy decisions about strategies to control coronavirus transmission. However, comparing cases and fatality rates across regions is challenging due to heterogeneity in testing and health systems. We show two complementary ways of benchmarking across territories and in time. First, we used multivariate regressions to estimate the test-elasticity of Covid-19 case incidence. Cases grow less than proportionally with testing when assessing weekly changes or looking across states in the USA. They tend to be proportional or even more than proportional when comparing the month-to-month evolution of an average country in the pandemic. Our results were robust to various model specifications. Second, we decomposed the growth in cases into test growth and positive test ratio growth to intuitively visualize the components of case growth. We hope these results can help support evidence-based decisions by public officials and help the public discussion when comparing across territories and in time.

Doihttps://doi.org/10.1080/10439463.2020.1779270
Autor de correspondenciaKenzo Asahi kasahi@uc.cl